新疆库尔勒棉区棉铃虫成虫种群动态与气象因子相关性分析
Effect of meteorological factors on the population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera adults in the Korla cotton-growing region of Xinjiang
陈 鑫1, 2** 宋冰梅2, 3 贾孟瑶1, 2 胡得琴2, 3 王冬梅2 潘洪生2***
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DOI：10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2025.065
作者单位：1. 新疆农业大学农学院，棉花教育部工程研究中心，乌鲁木齐 830052； 2. 新疆维吾尔自治区农业科学院植物保护研究所，国家植物保护库尔勒观测实验站，乌鲁木齐 830091； 3. 新疆大学生命科学与技术学院，新疆生物资源和基因工程重点实验室，乌鲁木齐 830046
中文关键词：库尔勒棉区；棉铃虫；高空诱虫灯；种群动态；气象因子
英文关键词： Korla cotton-growing region; Helicoverpa armigera; high-altitude trap lamp; population dynamics; meteorological factors
中文摘要：
【目的】 明确新疆库尔勒棉区棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera成虫种群动态和发生规律，分析其与气象因子的相关性，为棉铃虫监测预警和防控技术的制定提供参考。【方法】 2021-2024年使用高空诱虫灯监测新疆库尔勒棉区棉铃虫成虫种群动态，并分析其与小型气象站收集的气象数据的相关性。【结果】 新疆库尔勒棉区棉铃虫主要发生在4月上旬至9月下旬，一年4代，越冬代成虫始见日出现在每年的4月上旬，5月下旬是第1代棉铃虫成虫发生高峰期，但虫量相对较少；6月下旬至7月上旬第2代棉铃虫成虫的种群数量出现明显的峰值，是棉铃虫为害的主要时期；8月上旬是第3代棉铃虫成虫的发生高峰期，但虫量与第2代相比明显下降；8月下旬开始棉铃虫成虫种群数量逐渐减少，并保持在较低的水平。2021-2024年棉铃虫成虫种群动态与气象因子相关性分析表明：棉铃虫成虫种群数量与平均温度、最高温度呈显著性正相关（P<0.05），相关系数r分别为0.48和0.50；广义线性回归分析表明：平均温度是影响棉铃虫成虫种群数量的主要气象因子。【结论】 新疆库尔勒棉区棉铃虫成虫种群动态与温度具有显著正相关性，这为该地区棉铃虫的预测预报和综合防治奠定了理论基础。
英文摘要：
[Aim] To clarify the population dynamics and
occurrence patterns of Helicoverpa armigera adults in the Korla
cotton-growing region of Xinjiang, and analyze the correlation between these
and meteorological factors, to improve the monitoring, early warning,
prevention, and control, of this pest. [Methods] The population dynamics of H. armigera adults in the Korla cotton-growing region of Xinjiang were monitored using
high-altitude lamp traps from 2021 to 2024, and correlated with meteorological
data collected from small meteorological stations in the Korla region. [Results] H. armigera in the Korla
cotton-growing region of Xinjiang has four generations annually, with most
activity occurring
from early April to late September. Overwintering generation adults first
appear in early April, followed by a relatively low peak in the abundance of
first-generation adults in late May. A significant increase in the population
of second-generation adults is observed between late June and early July, which
is the main period of infestation. The third-generation adult population peaks
in early August, but at a noticeably lower level compared to the second
generation. From late August onward, adult populations gradually decline and
remain at minimal levels. There are significant positive correlations between
the population dynamics of H.
armigera and meteorological factors recorded between 2021 and 2024,
including between population abundance and both mean (r=0.48, P<0.05)
and maximum temperature (r=0.50, P<0.05). Generalized linear
regression indicates that average temperature was the main meteorological
factor affecting the abundance of H. armigera adults. [Conclusion] There was a significant positive correlation
between the population dynamics of H. armigera adults and temperature in
the Korla cotton-growing region of Xinjiang. This finding provides an important
theoretical foundation for the prediction and comprehensive control of H.
armigera.